This is a handful of the Merriam Webster Dictionary’s definitions for ‘formula’:

• A recipe
• A set form of words for use in a ceremony or ritual
• A general fact, rule, or principle expressed in usually mathematical symbols

Apparently there’s a formula for the kind of films that I like. I myself am a competitive-baking-meets-gore-meets-nostalgia alt-genre kinda gal, and that’s why on any given day my recommendations list will include both Nailed It! and Saw I through III.

What the dictionary doesn’t mention is that formulas make for very boring movies. Even if they’re a ‘recipe’ for success. In Algorithms to Live By, Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths describe the current cinema landscape/ Netflix-world-domination according to the Explore|Exploit algorithm.

It’s a trade-off that we’re constantly making: go with what you know with an outcome you can predict (Exploit), or take a chance on something which might blow up in your face? (Explore).

Whether the onset of media giants like Netflix have disrupted , or industry profits are winding down Hollywood have given up on Exploration and are now deeply embroiled in the Exploitation phase.

Hollywood have given up on Exploration, and are now deeply embroiled in the Exploitation phase.

If you need any evidence on how this has played out IRL look no farther than <insert any marvel movie ever> (and check out this video of a man in a cape complaining about it)

But Netflix hasn’t proven to be particularly brave either. Although they’re doing their research differently – they’re applying the same principle.

Maybe this is why Netflix are cancelling shows more than ever. RIP One Day At A Time.

We’ve made the very difficult decision not to renew One Day At A Time for a fourth season. The choice did not come easily — we spent several weeks trying to find a way to make another season work but in the end simply not enough people watched to justify another season.— Netflix US (@netflix) March 14, 2019

Apparently it only takes three episodes to work out if someone is addicted to a Netflix show. And if over 70% of people who start it go on to finish it, it gets another season. Sounds formulaic…

What the dictionary doesn’t mention is that formulas make for very boring movies. Even if they’re a ‘recipe’ for success.

Algorithmic bots give answers to impossible questions. We don’t really know about how they work, because their function is essentially a trade secret.

But what we do know is more data means better bots, and better bots mean that technology companies like Netflix can not only feed you the content they know you to like, but they can create the content before we even know we want it.

So in a nut shell, how do they work?

1. Establish a goal: in this case, the goal is for users to stay engaged (watch) for long as possible
2. A little bot measures how long a person stays on the site
3. The bot does it’s best to pick videos that keep you on the site
4. The longer you view, the better they score in their test
5. Make the best performing bot the king-pin, recycle the rest.

Make the best performing bot the king, recycle the rest. It’s a bit Darwinian, isn’t it?

So are they writing the stories with bots now? It certainly seems that way.

There’s not a C-grade horror film on Netflix that I haven’t watched, so naturally I flicked on Mercy Black when it premiered in March.  is scarcely indistinguishable from it’s forgettable forebears — Slenderman, Paranormal Activity III, The Toothfairy…

You can read a misleadingly glowing review by Heaven of Horror.  Honestly it was a stinker, and it feels that a lot of the ‘Netflix Original’ content has the same offensive odour.

Why? I suspect it’s because Netflix’s bots are telling them what movies to make, based on our watching behavior. People like me, and my awful, strange watching behavior. A bit like a Hallmark card with a puppy wearing a sombrero. Executives are rubbing their hands together and saying “It’s time for SON of Aqua Man!”  

What you want might not be what you need

We are increasingly in a position where instead of using tools, we are used by our tools. The risk of course is that when everything you see is curated, serendipitous discoveries become almost impossible. Are robots now the only way to keep up with the demand for content? Let’s bloody hope not.